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sir,
i plan a socieal side genration n india . if i buil in next 2 year approx 50 million subscribe in india and they spent 45 hour spend in per month every subscriber that how many value my socieal side.
Dear Sir,
Its an interesting question that might need a little more detail than provided in your Comment.
To summarize your business plan:
1. Social Media Site for India
2. 50 million active users in 2 years (active user = at least active once per month).
3. On average a user spends 45 hours per month (or 1.5 hour per day).
Lets just see how FB is doing in India … FB has ca. 53 Million accounts (ca. 50% age distribution less than 25) or 4.6% of the Indian population. Compare that to 66% of the Indian population having access to the Internet the FB performance is far from impressive, but also not surprising given the many languages (30 language spoken by more than 1 million pops) and non-Roman scripts in India. Personally I doubt that FB will gain much traction in India and there should be amble space for Social Media business models focusing on share of Indian population mapped to specific language (or dialect) & scripts.
The average of 45 hours per month spend on your social media site appears very aggressive/optimistic. On average (including fake accounts, etc.) a FB users spend about 6 – 8 hours per month (in terms of active FB users the time spend might be between 10 – 15 hours). Maybe you want to review that assumption?!
You are not leaving much info on your revenue model (which is understandable!). You obviously have several options. Though if you stay with traditional online advertisement you can choose traditional click, impression, or action based charging of online advertisement content (i.e., usually abbreviated by cpc, cpi/cpm or cpa). Obviously you might be totally innovative and have a totally different revenue model in mind?
In 2011, India’s online ad spend was ca.US$400 Million. 2012 is on its way towards US$500 Million. The growth rate of Online Ad Spend has been impressive. So maybe the future for a business model aiming at taking a share of the Online Ad Spend is not a bad idea.
I have seen Online Advertisement Spend projections for India at an upper limit of US$15 Billion by 2015 (and as little as US$2 Billion, i.e., factor 3 difference between lower and upper limit!). By 2020 the projected Online Ad Spend range have narrowed to between US$15 to US$20 Billion. Please take these forecasts with great caution! The Indian market is just at its starting point when it comes to online advertisement. If you are choosing another revenue model (e.g., gaming, content streaming, etc..) than online advertisement your revenue potential should be taken from another pool of money and as such influence your value.
For your valuation, assuming you do target online advertisement as primary revenue source, you need to assess what would be a realistic share of the total online spend given the particulars of your target customer base. From here you need to estimate what you operational and capital expenditures will be, etc.. and as such a pretty basic valuation would emerge. I recommend to use at least a 5 year forecast horizon and then adding your terminal value based on realistic future growth assessment.
I know this does not fully answer your question but should give you a path to assess the value of your business model.
Good Luck with your Business Idea ….
Btw. check out the following source: “Indian online ad spend to jump 54% this year: IAMAI”. For non-Indian not comfortable with Sanskrit Numbering System a Crore equals 10 Million. Rs 1 Crore equals approx. 180 thousand US Dollar (i.e., 1 USD “=” 56 RS).
Finally something intelligent! I was thinking and I thought I was alone!
Officially following you now, Doc. Finally someone who talk tech and economics.