About Dr. Kim

I am a Telecom & Social Media Doctor … A Technology GP … looking into what is wrong, what is good, how to prevent and how to get better. I am a Technology Economist, or as I like to call it a TechNEconomist. I am a data gourmet, I enjoy consuming large amount of data and care that the data I consume are of good quality. Though the occasional junk data can be fun as well as it can be revealing and entertaining. Fun and Passion are both important elements of the daily drive to get out of bed and explore and experience The World. This leads me to thinking (with my thinking hat on) about, analyzing and commenting on interesting disruptive technology trends and innovations as well as the Future of Telecom,  Social Media and Life in its many shapes, sounds and colors. I believe very much in looking out for the abnormality in data. In the extreme, or the abnormal, part of data distributions, that’s where the interesting stories lie as hidden jewels to be discovered. Opinions are of course my own.

  1. #1 by mukesh bagra on August 23, 2012 - 8:32 am

    i plan a socieal side genration n india . if i buil in next 2 year approx 50 million subscribe in india and they spent 45 hour spend in per month every subscriber that how many value my socieal side.

    • #2 by Dr. Kim on August 29, 2012 - 9:43 pm

      Dear Sir,

      Its an interesting question that might need a little more detail than provided in your Comment.

      To summarize your business plan:
      1. Social Media Site for India
      2. 50 million active users in 2 years (active user = at least active once per month).
      3. On average a user spends 45 hours per month (or 1.5 hour per day).

      Lets just see how FB is doing in India … FB has ca. 53 Million accounts (ca. 50% age distribution less than 25) or 4.6% of the Indian population. Compare that to 66% of the Indian population having access to the Internet the FB performance is far from impressive, but also not surprising given the many languages (30 language spoken by more than 1 million pops) and non-Roman scripts in India. Personally I doubt that FB will gain much traction in India and there should be amble space for Social Media business models focusing on share of Indian population mapped to specific language (or dialect) & scripts.

      The average of 45 hours per month spend on your social media site appears very aggressive/optimistic. On average (including fake accounts, etc.) a FB users spend about 6 – 8 hours per month (in terms of active FB users the time spend might be between 10 – 15 hours). Maybe you want to review that assumption?!

      You are not leaving much info on your revenue model (which is understandable!). You obviously have several options. Though if you stay with traditional online advertisement you can choose traditional click, impression, or action based charging of online advertisement content (i.e., usually abbreviated by cpc, cpi/cpm or cpa). Obviously you might be totally innovative and have a totally different revenue model in mind?

      In 2011, India’s online ad spend was ca.US$400 Million. 2012 is on its way towards US$500 Million. The growth rate of Online Ad Spend has been impressive. So maybe the future for a business model aiming at taking a share of the Online Ad Spend is not a bad idea.

      I have seen Online Advertisement Spend projections for India at an upper limit of US$15 Billion by 2015 (and as little as US$2 Billion, i.e., factor 3 difference between lower and upper limit!). By 2020 the projected Online Ad Spend range have narrowed to between US$15 to US$20 Billion. Please take these forecasts with great caution! The Indian market is just at its starting point when it comes to online advertisement. If you are choosing another revenue model (e.g., gaming, content streaming, etc..) than online advertisement your revenue potential should be taken from another pool of money and as such influence your value.

      For your valuation, assuming you do target online advertisement as primary revenue source, you need to assess what would be a realistic share of the total online spend given the particulars of your target customer base. From here you need to estimate what you operational and capital expenditures will be, etc.. and as such a pretty basic valuation would emerge. I recommend to use at least a 5 year forecast horizon and then adding your terminal value based on realistic future growth assessment.

      I know this does not fully answer your question but should give you a path to assess the value of your business model.

      Good Luck with your Business Idea ….

      Btw. check out the following source: “Indian online ad spend to jump 54% this year: IAMAI”. For non-Indian not comfortable with Sanskrit Numbering System a Crore equals 10 Million. Rs 1 Crore equals approx. 180 thousand US Dollar (i.e., 1 USD “=” 56 RS).

  2. #3 by Osvaldo Coelho on February 19, 2014 - 7:58 am

    Finally something intelligent! I was thinking and I thought I was alone!

  3. #4 by mytrainmaster on July 10, 2014 - 2:15 pm

    Officially following you now, Doc. Finally someone who talk tech and economics.

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